The Middle East (1972–1983): Conflict, Revolution, and New Realities

Between 1972 and 1983, the Middle East experiences profound political transformations, marked by regional rivalries, revolutionary upheaval, and strategic realignments amid intensifying Cold War dynamics.

Oil and Power in the Gulf

In the Persian Gulf, the newly independent United Arab Emirates (UAE) rapidly consolidates its statehood following the inclusion of Ras al Khaymah in February 1972. The wealth generated by petroleum resources transforms Abu Dhabi and Dubai into dynamic economic hubs, attracting significant international investment.

Qatar and Bahrain, having declared independence in 1971, swiftly enter the United Nations and the Arab League, securing international recognition. Bahrain develops into a banking and financial center, while Qatar expands its petroleum and natural gas industries, establishing firm diplomatic ties with the West, particularly the United States and Britain.

Oman's Emergence from Isolation

Under the rule of Sultan Qaboos bin Said Al Said—who had assumed power in a British-backed coup in 1970—Oman emerges from decades of isolation. After suppressing the Dhofar Rebellion in 1975 with assistance from Britain, Iran, and Jordan, Sultan Qaboos initiates sweeping modernization. Oman invests heavily in infrastructure, education, and healthcare, gradually integrating into the broader Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), established in 1981 alongside Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and the UAE, to bolster collective security and regional stability.

Iraq: Rise of Saddam Hussein

In Iraq, the Ba'ath Party tightens its grip on power. Saddam Hussein, as vice president from 1968 and formally ascending as president in 1979, embarks on ambitious modernization campaigns supported by oil revenues. His regime, however, is increasingly characterized by political repression, persecution of rivals, and aggressive regional ambitions, notably initiating a devastating eight-year conflict with Iran in September 1980. The Iran-Iraq War—fueled by territorial disputes, ideological differences between Saddam's secular Arab nationalism and Iran's revolutionary Shi'a Islam, and competition for regional dominance—inflicts catastrophic human and economic losses on both sides.

Iran: Revolution and Regional Shockwaves

In Iran, the political landscape dramatically shifts with the Iranian Revolution of 1979. The revolution, led by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, topples the pro-Western Pahlavi dynasty, ushering in a fiercely anti-Western Islamic Republic that profoundly alters regional and global geopolitics. The revolution's immediate aftermath includes the hostage crisis at the U.S. Embassy in Tehran, severely damaging Iran’s relationship with the West, particularly the United States.

The establishment of an Islamic revolutionary government ignites tensions throughout the region, emboldening Shi'a groups in Lebanon, Iraq, and the Gulf States, thereby heightening sectarian and geopolitical divides.

Lebanon: Civil War and Foreign Intervention

Lebanon descends into civil war in 1975, fueled by longstanding religious and sectarian tensions exacerbated by demographic shifts and Palestinian militant presence following the 1970 expulsion from Jordan (Black September). The war rapidly fragments Lebanon into militia-controlled enclaves, inviting repeated foreign interventions from Syria and Israel.

Israel's 1982 invasion—dubbed "Operation Peace for Galilee"—aims to drive out the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), headquartered in Beirut. The invasion culminates in a prolonged siege of West Beirut and the forced departure of PLO leader Yasser Arafat and thousands of his fighters. It also triggers horrific episodes of violence, notably the Sabra and Shatila massacres, in which Lebanese Phalangist militias murder hundreds of Palestinian civilians under the indirect oversight of Israeli forces.

Syria under Assad: Consolidation and Conflict

In Syria, President Hafez al-Assad (in power since 1970) consolidates a repressive, authoritarian regime underpinned by the Alawite minority. Assad positions Syria as a central player in Arab politics, maintaining close ties with the Soviet Union while supporting anti-Israeli resistance movements across the region. He firmly places Syria in opposition to Israel and Western-aligned Arab regimes, notably supporting Lebanese factions and the Palestinian cause.

Assad's rule faces significant internal challenges, climaxing in 1982 when Syrian government forces brutally crush an Islamist-led rebellion by the Muslim Brotherhood in the city of Hama, killing thousands in a move that cements Assad’s authoritarian grip but deeply scars Syrian society.

Turkey and the Cyprus Conflict

In 1974, Turkey invades Cyprus in response to a coup d'état by Greek Cypriot nationalists aiming to unite the island with Greece (enosis). Turkish military forces establish control over the northern third of Cyprus, leading to the island’s de facto partition. This military intervention triggers international condemnation but also reshapes Turkey’s strategic position in the Eastern Mediterranean. The partition remains unresolved decades later, deeply influencing regional diplomacy.

Soviet and U.S. Rivalry: The Middle East as a Cold War Front

Throughout this era, the Middle East is a crucial theater for the Cold War, with the United States and Soviet Union competing fiercely for influence. American support for Israel and pro-Western Gulf states contrasts sharply with Soviet backing for Syria, Iraq, and various Palestinian factions. Superpower rivalry exacerbates regional tensions, fueling proxy conflicts and facilitating massive arms transfers to regional actors, intensifying hostilities in Lebanon, the Iran-Iraq War, and the Arab-Israeli conflict.

The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)

The Gulf Cooperation Council, established in 1981 by Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, and Oman, underscores a growing Arab effort to manage regional security independently, responding to revolutionary instability in Iran, Iraq's aggression, and Soviet intervention in Afghanistan. The GCC solidifies diplomatic and economic collaboration, while reinforcing security partnerships with Western allies, particularly the United States.

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Legacy of Revolution, War, and Re-alignment (1972–1983)

The years between 1972 and 1983 reshape the Middle East profoundly. The Iranian Revolution introduces a lasting ideological dynamic between revolutionary Islamism and secular nationalism. The devastating Iran-Iraq War entrenches bitter sectarian and national divides, whose consequences echo into future decades.

Lebanon’s civil war marks the beginning of sustained regional instability involving international actors, setting precedents for prolonged foreign interference. The creation of the GCC reflects an increasing sense of collective regional identity among Gulf monarchies, defining future political and economic strategies.

Finally, the entrenched presence of the United States and Soviet Union highlights the Middle East as a focal point of global Cold War tensions, laying the groundwork for continued external involvement and rivalry that profoundly impacts regional stability and security for decades to follow.

In retrospect, there had been indications that Egypt was preparing for war.

On July 17, 1972, Sadat had expelled the fifteen thousand Soviet advisers from Egypt.

Sadat will later explain that the expulsion had freed him to pursue his preparations for war

On December 28, 1972, Sadat had created "permanent war committees."

On March 26, 1973, Sadat assumes the additional tide of prime minister and forms a new government designed to continue preparations for a confrontation with Israel.

Egyptian forces launch a successful surprise attack across the Suez Canal on October 6, 1973.

The Syrians carry out an attack on Israel at the same time.

For the Arabs, it is the fasting month of Ramadan, and for Israel it is Yom Kippur.

The crossing of the canal, an astounding feat of technology and military acumen, takes only four hours to complete.

The crossing is code-named Operation Badr after the first victory of the Prophet Muhammad,
which culminated in his entry into Mecca in 630.

On October 17 the Arab oil producers announce a program of reprisals against the Western backers of Israel: a five percent cutback in output, followed by further such reductions every month until Israel has withdrawn from all the occupied territories and the rights of the Palestinians have been restored.

The next day, President Nixon formally asks Congress for US$2.2 billion in emergency funds to finance the massive airlift of arms to Israel that is already under way.

The following day, King Faisal of Saudi Arabia decrees an immediate ten percent cutback in Saudi oil and, five days after that, the complete suspension of all shipments to the United States.

Israel is shocked and unprepared for the war. 

After the initial confusion and near panic in Israel followed by the infusion of United States weaponry, Israel is able to counterattack and succeeds in crossing to the west bank of the canal and surrounding the Egyptian Third Army.

With the Third Army surrounded, Sadat appeals to the Soviet Union for help.

Soviet prime minister Alexei Kosygin believes he has obtained the American acceptance of a
cease-fire through Henry Kissinger, United States secretary of state.

On October 22, the UN Security Council passes Resolution 338, calling for a cease-fire by all parties within twelve hours in the positions they occupy.

Egypt accepts the cease-fire, but Israel, alleging Egyptian violations of the cease-fire, completes the encirclement of the Third Army to the east of the canal.

By nightfall on October 23, the road to Suez, the Third Army's only supply line, is in Israeli hands, cutting off two divisions and  forty-five thousand men.

The Soviet Union is furious, believing it had been double-crossed by the United States.

On October 24, the Soviet ambassador hands Kissinger a note from Brezhnev threatening that if the United States is not prepared to join in sending forces to impose the cease-fire, the Soviet Union will act alone.

The United States takes the threat very seriously and respond by ordering a grade-three nuclear alert, the first of its kind since President John F. Kennedy's order during the Cuban missile crisis of 1962.

The threat comes to naught, however, because a UN emergency force arrives in the battle zone to police the cease-fire.

Syria meanwhile feels betrayed by Egypt because Sadat had not informed his ally of his decision to accept the cease-fire.

Two days after Sadat, President Hafez al-Assad of Syria accepts the cease-fire as well.

Neither side has won a clear-cut victory, but for the Egyptians, it is a victory nonetheless.

The Arabs had taken the initiative in attacking the Israelis and had shown that Israel is not invincible.

The stinging defeats of 1948, 1956, and 1967 seem to be avenged.

The Israelis, however, have paid a heavy price for merely holding their attackers to an inconclusive draw.

In three weeks, they have lost two thousand five hundred and twenty-three personnel, two and a half times as many, proportionally speaking, as the United States has lost in the ten years of the Vietnam war.

The war has had a devastating effect on Israel's economy and is followed by savage austerity measures and drastically reduced living standards.

For the first time, Israelis witness the humiliating spectacle of Israeli prisoners, heads bowed, paraded on Arab television.

Also, for the first time captured Israeli hardware was exhibited in Cairo.

Egyptian casualties include about eight thousand killed.

The effect of the war on the morale of the Egyptian population, however, is immense.

Sadat's prestige grows tremendously.

The war, along with the political moves Sadat had made previously, means that he is totally in control and able to implement the programs he wants.

He is the hero of the day.