The Near East, 1984 to 1995 CE: Turmoil, Conflict, and Shifting Alliances

Sudan: Famine, Revolt, and Military Coups

In 1984 and 1985, Sudan faces a devastating famine exacerbated by drought, placing millions at severe risk, especially in the western regions. Despite the urgency, the Sudanese regime initially attempts to conceal the crisis from international scrutiny. Economic troubles worsen as negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) lead the government to announce price hikes for basic commodities, sparking widespread unrest.

In March 1985, widespread dissatisfaction triggers mass demonstrations and strikes, particularly in the capital city, Khartoum, but also across Sudan's major urban centers. On April 2, 1985, a unified front of eight unions demands a general political strike aimed explicitly at ending the existing regime. The movement rapidly escalates, culminating in massive demonstrations and an almost total paralysis of governmental institutions and economic activity.

Amidst the escalating turmoil, on April 6, 1985, Lieutenant General Abd ar Rahman Siwar adh Dhahab leads a Sudanese Military Coup, overthrowing President Jaafar Nimeiry, who flees to Egypt. A fifteen-member Transitional Military Council (TMC) assumes control, promising a return to civilian rule.

Unstable Civilian Governments and Renewed Military Rule

In June 1986, Sadiq al Mahdi forms a fragile coalition government comprising his Umma Party, the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), the National Islamic Front (NIF), and four southern parties. Despite initial hopes, Mahdi's government proves weak and ineffective, plagued by internal factionalism, corruption, and personal rivalries.

Facing persistent governmental paralysis, Sadiq al Mahdi dismisses his cabinet within a year, citing their failure to draft a new penal code to replace Sharia, reach agreements with the IMF, resolve the ongoing Second Sudanese Civil War, or attract essential remittances from expatriates. A subsequent coalition government also proves ineffective, further destabilizing the nation.

In 1989, as peace negotiations with southern rebels are underway, General Omar al-Bashir leads another military coup, establishing a junta uninterested in negotiation. Al-Bashir consolidates power, ultimately declaring himself president and setting the stage for prolonged authoritarian rule.

Egypt: Mubarak’s Economic Challenges

Under President Hosni Mubarak, Egypt continues balancing its diplomatic relationship with Israel and reducing tensions with Arab neighbors. Internally, however, the country faces severe socio-economic challenges. Despite growth in agricultural and industrial output, Egypt struggles to cope with rapid population growth, urban poverty, and rising unemployment. Massive rural-to-urban migration exacerbates these problems, leading to widespread urban poverty, particularly evident in sprawling slums surrounding Cairo.

Regional Instability and the Arab-Israeli Conflict

This era sees intensifying regional conflicts and significant geopolitical shifts. In Palestine, the First Intifada (1987–1993) dramatically escalates tensions between Palestinians and Israelis, prompting international concern and intervention. This uprising underscores Palestinian grievances against Israeli occupation and fuels increased militancy on both sides.

The persistent Israeli occupation of Southern Lebanon (ongoing from 1985 to 2000) exacerbates regional instability, resulting in protracted clashes and fostering environments conducive to sustained violence.

Diplomatic efforts, notably the landmark Oslo Accords of 1993 and the subsequent Oslo II Accords in 1995, temporarily renew hopes for peace by outlining frameworks for Palestinian self-governance. Despite these efforts, continuing violence and mutual distrust hinder substantial progress. Related negotiations continue with the Wye River Memorandum (initiated in 1995), underscoring ongoing challenges in securing lasting peace.

Yemen and Broader Regional Dynamics

The Yemeni Civil War of 1994 emerges as another significant regional conflict, illustrating deep-seated internal divisions exacerbated by the aftermath of Yemen’s earlier North-South conflicts.

The Impact of the Cold War’s End

The global Cold War (1947–1991) significantly shapes regional dynamics until its conclusion in the early 1990s. The ideological rivalry and superpower interventions heavily influence local conflicts, alliances, and power structures. Its conclusion sees a realignment of regional strategies and political relationships, affecting both domestic and international policies throughout the Near East.

Legacy of the Era

From 1984 to 1995, the Near East is marked by severe humanitarian crises, political instability, and complex regional conflicts. These events underscore the enduring challenges faced by Sudan, Egypt, and their regional neighbors, laying foundations for further political, economic, and social turmoil in subsequent decades.

The Near East, 1996 to 2007 CE: Crisis, Conflict, and Political Shifts

Sudan: Darfur Crisis and International Intervention

The turn of the millennium marks a turbulent period for Sudan, especially the Darfur region, where a new rebellion led by the Sudan Liberation Movement/Army (SLM/A) and the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) erupts in 2003. The rebels accuse the government of neglecting Darfur, sparking violent conflict. In response, government-aligned Janjaweed militias carry out widespread atrocities, causing a devastating humanitarian crisis, the Darfur Food Crisis. Tens of thousands perish, and millions become displaced, many fleeing to neighboring Chad.

In April 2004, under pressure from international communities, negotiations in N'Djamena lead to a fragile Humanitarian Ceasefire Agreement. However, violence persists, prompting the African Union (AU) to deploy ceasefire monitors, initially just a few hundred soldiers, but eventually expanding to about seven thousand under the African Union Mission in Sudan (AMIS). Yet, the crisis deepens, drawing greater international attention.

On September 18, 2004, the United Nations Security Council issues Resolution 1564, condemning Sudan's government for its continued military attacks and calling for expanded international monitoring. Negotiations remain strained until August 2006, when the Security Council passes Resolution 1706, authorizing a robust seventeen-thousand-strong peacekeeping force. Resistance from the Sudanese government delays deployment, eventually leading to a hybrid African Union–United Nations peacekeeping effort in Darfur.

Meanwhile, Sudan faces profound internal transformations. The National Islamic Front under Hasan al-Turabiintensifies its "top-down" Islamization policy. Educational reforms emphasize Islamic teachings, societal restrictions tighten, and the government supports jihadist ideologies, controversially sheltering figures like Osama bin Laden until his departure. Sudan’s economy struggles under international pressure and internal conflicts.

Cyprus: Divided Entry to the European Union

Cyprus, long divided between Greek and Turkish Cypriots, faces critical decisions in the early 2000s. In 2000, the European Union agrees to admit Cyprus, hoping membership would foster reunification. However, in 2004, a UN-brokered peace settlement referendum sees overwhelming rejection by Greek Cypriots despite Turkish Cypriot acceptance. Consequently, Cyprus enters the European Union as a divided island, with EU membership effectively suspended for Northern Cyprus.

Egypt: Persistent Political Struggles and Terrorism

Throughout this era, Egypt faces significant internal turmoil under President Hosni Mubarak. Terrorist activities escalate, particularly targeting tourists and the Coptic Christian minority, severely impacting tourism and domestic stability. Despite economic growth in sectors like agriculture and industry, rapid population growth continues to strain resources, amplifying poverty and urban overcrowding, notably around metropolitan Cairo, now home to over twenty million people.

In 2005, Mubarak introduces modest political reforms, allowing Egypt’s first multi-candidate presidential election. However, these reforms are limited, and Mubarak comfortably wins re-election amidst allegations of electoral interference. Post-election repression continues, exemplified by the imprisonment of prominent opposition figures such as Ayman Nour.

Israeli-Palestinian Conflicts and Fragile Peace Efforts

The Israeli-Palestinian conflict sees cycles of intense violence and diplomacy. The Israeli occupation of Southern Lebanon finally concludes in 2000, but regional tensions continue. The Second Palestinian Intifada breaks out, lasting from 2000 to 2005, significantly escalating hostilities. Efforts to revive peace negotiations lead to diplomatic agreements such as the Wye River Memorandum (1998) and subsequent discussions, but deep-rooted animosities impede lasting resolutions.

In 2006, the conflict within Palestinian factions escalates dramatically. The Fatah-Hamas conflict intensifies, culminating in the Battle of Gaza in 2007, effectively splitting the Palestinian territories between Hamas-controlled Gaza and Fatah-governed West Bank.

Chad-Sudan Cross-border Tensions

Cross-border tensions between Sudan and Chad escalate during this period, exacerbated by the Darfur conflict and resulting refugee crises. Armed skirmishes and mutual accusations of supporting rebel movements destabilize the region, contributing further to the broader humanitarian crisis.

Legacy of Instability

From 1996 to 2007, the Near East experiences continued political upheaval, significant humanitarian disasters, and profound shifts in regional alliances and internal politics. These events lay the groundwork for ongoing tensions and challenges, underscoring the complex interplay between internal conflicts, regional power dynamics, and international intervention.

Ehud Barak, who in June 1997 had become head of the Labor Party, promises on March 1 to bring Israeli soldiers home from southern Lebanon by June 2000, in the run-up to the 1999 election.

He says he hopes to end the unpopular seventeen year-long war through an agreement with Syria but indicates that he will stick to the deadline even if such an agreement fails to materialize.

He runs for prime minister under the coalition One Israel, which includes his secular and mainly Ashkenazi Labor as well as David Levy's Sephardi Gesher Party and the left-leaning Orthodox Meimad, the latter a spin-off of the National Religious Party.

Barak emphasizes economic and other domestic issues, including education and health services, as well as relations with the Palestinians and with Syria and Lebanon.

Hezbollah, the pro-Iranian Lebanese Shi'ite group founded during the early 1980s, has long aspired to eliminate Israeli influence from the country.

Ehud Barak, in the face of determined resistance by Hezbollah militiamen, carries out his 1999 campaign promise to withdraw Israeli troops from Lebanon, even without an agreement with Syria, to a border demarcated by the UN.

Israel withdraws the last of its forces from southern Lebanon six weeks earlier than originally planned in the wake of the collapse of Israel's proxy militia, the South Lebanon Army.

Israel's eighteen-year-long occupation of southern Lebanon ends on May 24, when it withdraws the last of its troops from its self-declared security zone.

Hezbollah has replaced the PLO as Israel's principal antagonist in southern Lebanon, waging a vigorous war against the Jewish state even after that country's final withdrawal from Lebanon in mid-2000.

Twenty-two years after authorization had been granted to do so, United Nations peacekeepers begin spreading out in force to guard the border between Israel and Lebanon.