The Near East, 1972 to 1983 CE: Shifts in Alliances and Economic Challenges

Sudan: Economic Struggles and Foreign Influence

Beginning in 1972, the Sudanese government shifts toward a more pro-Western stance, focusing on increasing agricultural exports. Until the early 1970s, Sudan's agricultural production primarily satisfied domestic consumption. Plans to boost exports by mechanizing agriculture quickly encounter difficulties as global commodity prices decline throughout the 1970s. Simultaneously, the rising costs of debt servicing—due to the heavy investment in mechanized farming—compound Sudan's economic troubles.

In 1978, the Sudanese government negotiates a Structural Adjustment Program with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which further emphasizes mechanized export agriculture. This policy negatively impacts pastoralists, particularly the indigenous ethnic communities inhabiting the Nuba Mountains in South Kordofan state, exacerbating economic disparities and social tensions.

Military Alliances and Arms Acquisitions

Sudan's foreign military relations shift notably during this period. Having traditionally relied on British training and supplies, Khartoum severed ties with Western countries following the Arab-Israeli Six-Day War (1967). Between 1968 and 1971, the Soviet Union and its Eastern Bloc allies significantly bolster Sudan's military capabilities, increasing the army's strength from eighteen thousand to about fifty thousand troops and supplying tanks, aircraft, and artillery.

After the 1971 Sudanese Coup d'état, however, Sudan seeks to diversify its military partnerships. Egypt emerges as a significant supplier throughout the 1970s, providing missiles, personnel carriers, and other military hardware. Western countries resume supplying Sudan in the mid-1970s, notably the United States, which begins substantial equipment sales around 1976. Under President Ronald Reagan’s administration, American military sales peak in 1982 at $101 million, making Sudan the second-largest recipient of U.S. aid to Africa, following Egypt. Total American assistance grows dramatically from $5 million in 1979 to $200 million in 1983, predominantly for military programs.

Political Reconciliation and Instability

In 1976, the Ansars, followers of the Mahdi tradition, attempt a bloody but unsuccessful coup (Sudanese Revolt) against President Jaafar Nimeiry’s regime. Despite this violence, reconciliation follows when Nimeiry meets Ansar leader Sadiq al-Mahdi in July 1977. The government releases hundreds of political prisoners and announces a general amnesty in August, temporarily easing internal political tensions.

Strategic Developments

By 1983, Sudan agrees to significant strategic developments, including constructing four air bases to accommodate units of the U.S. Rapid Deployment Force and establishing a powerful Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) listening station near Port Sudan. These installations reflect Sudan’s deepening alignment with Western interests during the late stages of the Cold War.

Regional Turmoil and Conflicts

The Near East experiences significant turmoil and conflicts during this period. Although the First Sudanese Civil War officially ends in 1972, underlying tensions continue, eventually reigniting into the Second Sudanese Civil War in 1983, a prolonged conflict that deeply impacts the region.

In Yemen, repeated conflicts erupt between North and South, known as the North-South Yemen Wars, occurring first in 1972 and again in 1979, reflecting the region's chronic instability and ideological divisions exacerbated by the global Cold War context.

Egypt faces profound socio-economic upheaval as President Anwar Sadat introduces economic liberalization policies known as the "Infitah", which lead to severe unrest and widespread riots in 1977. Egypt also experiences a traumatic event in 1981 with the assassination of President Anwar Sadat, marking a turbulent shift in the country's political trajectory.

The complex Arab-Israeli conflict further escalates with the 1978 South Lebanon conflict, culminating in the landmark Camp David Accords (1978), reshaping regional alliances. The tension reaches a peak with the Israeli Invasion of Lebanon in 1982, significantly heightening regional instability and intensifying violent activities by the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO).

Collectively, these events profoundly shape the political and social landscape of the Near East, embedding lasting tensions and setting the stage for ongoing regional dynamics.

Legacy of the Era

From 1972 to 1983, Sudan experiences major economic challenges, shifting international alignments, and internal political instability. These factors create lasting social, economic, and political impacts, laying the groundwork for continued internal strife and complex regional dynamics in subsequent decades.

The number and size of PLO operations in southern Lebanon had accelerated throughout the late 1970s as central authority deteriorated and the country became a battleground of warring militias.

Continued fighting among the Lebanese factions has led to the loss of prestige of the former political elite and to the emergence of a new generation of militia leaders, except in the Phalangist Party, whose existing leadership dominates the Christian-rightist coalition so successfully that the Syrian army of occupation once again begins to support the Muslim-leftist-Palestinian groups in 1978.

The destruction and violence have caused hundreds of thousands of Lebanese to flee their homes in southern Lebanon, where the threat of Israeli intervention stops Syria from imposing a peace.

A  seaborne fedayeen raiding party, originating in Lebanon, lands in Israel and hijacks a bus on the Tel Aviv-Haifa road on March 11, 1978.

Thirty-seven civilian tourists die and eighty-two are wounded; Israeli security forces kill all nine Fatah operatives.

There follows the Israeli invasion of southern Lebanon three days later (codename: Operation Litani) to destroy Palestinian bases and to force Lebanon to curb raids by the PLO into Israel.

The massive military offensive that is Operation Litani results in Israeli occupation of southern Lebanon up to the Litani River.

However, Israel succeeds only partially in their goal of ousting the PLO from southern Lebanon.

Following the passage of UN Resolution 425, the Israelis, under intense American pressure, withdraw in stages before evacuated Lebanese territory, under international pressure, by mid-June; a small UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) replaces them.

The withdrawal of Israeli troops without having removed the PLO from its bases in southern Lebanon becomes a major embarrassment to the Begin government.

The Israelis have been only partly successful in their aim of destroying Palestinian guerrillas and their bases south of the Litani River.

Several hundred Palestinian guerrillas have been killed, but most of them have escaped northward.

Estimates of civilian casualties range from one thousand to two thousand Palestinians and Lebanese, with two hundred and fifty thousand made refugees and many towns left in ruins.

This episode strengthens Israel's ties with the Phalange, who benefit from Israeli weapons and training.

Israel continues, however, to supply arms, money, and troops to the Christians in the south, while the Palestinians soon return to the same region.

The war leaves the Palestinians with perhaps twenty thousand killed and twice that number wounded.

The Syrians appear stronger than before, but, having got into Lebanon, they face the problem of extricating themselves.

Only Israel, among the states of the Middle East, appears to have "won."

The Palestinians lose their major bid, Syria fears Israeli intervention, and the Lebanese Christians are in Israel's debt.

More important, the horror of the war has caused Arabs everywhere to question, as never before, the very dream of pan-Arabism.