The independence movement is stalemated and close to collapse by early 1820, after ten years of civil war and the death of two of its founders.

The rebels face stiff Spanish military resistance and the apathy of many of the most influential criollos.

The violent excesses and populist zeal of Hidalgo's and Morelos's irregular armies have reinforced many criollos' fears of race and class warfare, ensuring their grudging acquiescence to conservative Spanish rule until a less bloody path to independence can be found.

It is at this juncture that the machinations of a conservative military caudillo, coinciding with a successful liberal rebellion in Spain, makes possible a radical realignment of the pro-independence forces.